2021 in Review: Buy, Sell, Hold (Pt. 3 MH2 Edition)

Click here if you missed Part 1 or Part 2

Writer's Note: all pricing is current as of 3/21/22 and based on TCG Direct unless otherwise noted.

By now, you know the format of the buy/sell/hold articles, but if you are just reading for the first time, please start by reading Part 1 to get a ley of the land. My latest installment is going to be entirely dedicated to Modern Horizons 2, one of the deepest sets from a mix of both new cards + reprints which I can recall in recent MTG memory.

The EV on boxes of MH2 is stellar, buoyed by reprints of the enemy fetchlands and Cabal Coffers, and led by the inclusion of Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer, Urza's Saga, and the latest "evoke" cycle.

We discussed the evoke cycle on our buy/sell/hold podcast episode of Brewin' With Conviction, so, in the interest of encouraging you to listen, I won't be rehashing that content. Suffice it to say, though: we like the cycle generally over the long run.

Reprint Risk?

One of the most important factors for evaluating a set is how at-risk it is of seeing the valuable cards being reprinted. Given MH2 is still in print (as far as we know), and given the WotC design cycle, I think most, if not all, high-end pieces from the set are safe from a reprint in 2022 (Secret Lairs aside). I simply have a hard time imagining WotC chewing into their new reprint equity from Modern Horizons 2 that quickly. My prediction is we won't see meaningful MH2 reprints until 2023; if true, that would mean singles + sealed product will appreciate meaningfully this year.

Sealed Product a Good Buy?

There was a time in 2021 where you could get Set and Draft Boosters close to $200 per box. I was fortunate enough to pick up six cases of Set Boosters with an average price of $195/box. Unlikely we will see that price again, but another 8% TCG bonus bucks on sealed products can get you to around $200 pre-tax. Collector Boosters also were once around $300 and now the cheapest available is $400, but I must admit that price still feels reasonable if you're willing to buy sealed product and hold it for 3-5 years. I think it is realistic that Modern Horizons 2 Collector Booster displays will sell for $600+ within a few years.

In general, I'm a buyer of Modern Horizons 2 sealed products even at their current prices. This does, however, assume a hold time of 3-5 years; please don't expect a fast flip here.

Reviewing Singles

As I already mentioned, this set is so deep that it required an entire article to itself. There are cards at every price and rarity worth discussing, and you'll find below that I tried a new way (leveraging tables) to review more cards at once.

Please send me your feedback to let me know what you think about this new article structure (i.e. was it helpful to get more cards reviewed? Should I adjust it in the future? Etc.)

Let's get to it!

The Bargain Bin (Stuff Under $5)

In an effort to review more cards in shorter time, I am attempting the following bullet point format. Let me know what you think!

• Tourach, Dread Cantor (M) - $4.50 (Hold): there was a time where Tourach was a stellar buy; copies were as low as $1 back in November 2021. At its current $4-5 price tag, I'm not as quick to buy in, but if you got copies back at that low-point last year, you're in great shape. My gut is to hold rather than sell because the price momentum looks strong, and it has quite a bit of traction in Modern.
• Chatterfang, Squirrel General (M) - $3.50 (Sell): Chatterfang is a powerful commander, and is also included in the 99 of commander decks. However, with no multi-format play, and "squirrel fad" wearing off, I would suggest selling any extra copies of Chatterfang.
• Grist, the Hunger Tide (M) - $8 (Hold, Writer's Note this article originally appeared on 2/15/22 where Grist was still $5): Grist is a unique card from a templating perspective, functioning as a creature when it isn't on the battlefield. This uniqueness makes me excited to own copies, and that's complimented by Grist's developing presence in Modern, Legacy, and Vintage. Rarely can you find a planeswalker with so much playability this cheap, but that's what fetchlands can do to a set! I'm a buyer of these at $5-6 given the unique upside it presents; this card has, however, increased to $8 via TCG Direct since the original Patreon release of this article.
• Kaldra Compleat (M) - $5.95 (Strong Buy): Kaldra Compleat is on my radar due to its fringe play in both Modern & Legacy. Being a powerful equipment means it will always be relevant, and I expect the price growth to be strong and organic until it gets reprinted.
• Scion of Draco (M) - $2.00 (Buy): Scion of Draco is interesting because of the casual appeal - it's a dragon after all! An homage to the original Draco from Planeshift, this version is arguably more playable because it doesn't require an upkeep cost. I'm partial to the Retro Frame foils of Scion of Draco ($3) as a compliment to its original.
• Mirari's Wake (M) - $5.50 (Hold): Mirari's Wake is a casual classic, originally from the Judgment block, and the reprint in MH2 was much welcomed. It bottomed around $3 and has been on a mild if not modest rebound since. This will keep trending up and to the right until its next reprint, so hold with confidence.

Fetchlands

In the interest of time, I won't be individually discussing fetches, but as a general rule, this is a fantastic time to be picking up your enemy colors. They are the cheapest they've been in a decade, and supply on them is as high as I can ever remember. If you want to get into Modern/Legacy/Vintage or you want to up the power-level of your manabase in commander, now is the time to do so.

As a bonus mention, I am bullish on the Retro Frame Etched foils. They are selling close to the same as pack non-foils, but having copies of my own, I can attest to the fact that say they look way better than you might imagine based on the stock images seen on various sites.

The Heavy Hitters

I'll start by saying this: there was a better time to get these three cards in 2021 at their lows, but each of these is still a solid (if not spectacular) buy. I'm less bullish on Esper Sentinel because it has already risen so much, but there's a famous saying on Wall Street that I would adhere to uniquely for Sentinel: "let your winners ride". It's not too often a card is put in 54K decks by the EDHREC count and not even a full year removed from its set dropping (Modern Horizons 2 released in June 2021).

I bought 60 copies of Esper Sentinel at $11 back in September 2021, and I bought 30 of Dauthi Voidwalker ($7) and Yavimaya, Cradle of Growth ($6) at the same time. This is a good example of how supply tends to peak within the first 3-6 months of a set dropping, and sometimes that's the best time to get staples before they get recognized by players as such.

However, one of these three cards is not like the other. Esper Sentinel has appreciated 100% from its lows while Dauthi and Yavimaya are only modestly higher. This makes me lean towards recommending both Dauthi and Yavimaya as strong buys given their playability across multiple formats and their comparable EDHREC counts. I'd be looking for both around $8-9 if you can find them, and of course do your own research on the special variants (I love Retro Etched personally).

Wrapping Up

I would love to keep talking about more cards from Modern Horizons 2 (there are SO many worth covering), but I am out of time and space in this article!

If you'd like to keep the conversation going, hit me up on Twitter. I always love to share my thoughts and also hear yours! Hope you enjoyed this installment of Buy/Sell/Hold.

Cheers!